Brownlow Medal-Aussieraces.com

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Photo : Collingwood's Dane Swan after his shock 2011 Brownlow Medal win at odds of 16/1.

How To Pick The 2020 Brownlow Medal Winner  
   
                                  
By Mark Hall

The Brownlow medal count is usually a glamorous affair. Wags (ok – ‘significant others’) show off their wares on the red carpet before the event whilst next to them their footy star dates often squirm uncomfortably in tight tuxedos and utter awkward banter to interviewers about their and their partner’s outfits. Clearly the majority of AFL players are more comfortable in their footy kit than designer outfits.  

This year in Covid 19 times the glamour will be missing but the count will still be televised live by Channel 7 on Sunday, October 18th, the week of the AFL Grand Final.

Usually a fun part of Brownlow night is trying to pick the winner. This year however, after his stellar year on the field, the Lion’s Lachie Neale has seemingly taken all the air out of the occasion. Bookmakers have him as the hot favourite for the event at the odds of $1.25. In mathematical terms that means they believe he is an 80% chance to win the game’s highest honour. We’ve done the sums, entered the figures into our marvelous, mathematical Brownlow winner calculating machine and have come up with exactly the same answer.

Whilst the general opinion is that Lachie Neale is home and hosed in this year’s medal, we don’t need to back Neale at the skinny odds in order to win. Bookmakers can often be party poopers, but this year they have come to the party by offering a whole variety of Brownlow betting markets that offer value and wagering opportunities. For example Sportsbet have a Brownlow medal market with Lachie Neale excluded and also markets for Top 3 Finish, Top 5 Finish and even Top 10 Finish.

Here’s the latest Brownlow betting market -

Player

  Team

 Market

Lachie Neale

Lions

  $1.25

Travis Boak

Power

  $7.00

Christian Petracca

Demons

  $8.00

Jack Steele

Saints

 $12.00

Patrick Dangerfield

Cats

 $21.00

Jack McCrae

Bulldogs

 $21.00

Dustin Martin

Tigers

 $23.00

Marcus Bontempelli

Bulldogs

 $26.00

Nat Fyfe

Dockers

 $41.00

Max Gawn

Demons

 $51.00

Patrick Cripps

Blues

 $51.00

Clayton Oliver

Demons

 $67.00

Nic Natanui

Eagles

 $67.00

Scott Pendlebury

Magpies

 $67.00

Oliver Wines

Power

 $67.00

Cameron Guthrie

Cats

 $67.00

Sam Menegola

Cats

 $67.00

Taylor Adams

Magpies

 $67.00

Tom Hawkins

Cats

$101.00

Now back to our marvelous, mathematical Brownlow medal winner calculating machine – here’s how it works. We studied 28 different form variables to assess whether each of them were good predictors for picking the Brownlow winner. We found that some were very strong indicators. The strongest single pointer to a player performing well in Brownlow voting is how he ranks for Centre Clearances. Obviously if you’re clearing the ball from right under the umpires’ noses at centre bounces you’re going to get noticed. The past five Brownlow winners all ranked in the top five players for Centre Clearances during their respective seasons. Considering that each AFL team had about 40 players on their list and there are 18 sides, there were approximately 720 players going around this year - so to be ranked in the top five is pretty impressive.

The second key indicator is Contested Possessions. All of the past seven Brownlow winners ranked highly on this factor. On the other hand, as shown on the table below, umpires are much less impressed by players who gather plenty of Uncontested Possessions. Footballers who do chalk up good numbers in this area rarely feature in Brownlow voting. Similarly, umpires also don’t tend to award many votes to top goal scorers. In the past seven years none of the Brownlow winners have featured on the goal kicking tables. This year’s Coleman Medal winner Geelong’s Tom Hawkins would therefore appear to have history against him.

In addition to Centre Clearances and Contested Possessions - there are other key variables that point to a player performing well in the Brownlow. They are his Supercoach Score and his rankings for general Clearances. As well as these factors, it’s also worth factoring in a player’s team’s position at the end of the minor round – simply because Brownlow medal winners most often come from winning teams in the top four. A player’s finishing position in the previous year’s Brownlow voting should also be considered as it shows whether he’s the type of player who is proven to attract umpires’ votes.

T
he table below shows recent Brownlow Medal winners and how they ranked on the key variables -

                   Table 1 - Recent Brownlow Medal Winners’ Rankings on Key Form Variables

Recent Brownlow

Medal Winners -

Key Variables -

2013   Gary  

Ablett

 2014  

 Mathew

 Priddis

2015  

Nathan  Fyfe

2016   

Patrick Dangerfield

2017   

Dustin

Martin

2018 Tom Mitchell

2019 Nathan Fyfe

  1. Rank for
    Centre  Clearances

    Not  

   Avail.

    Not

   Avail.

    3rd

      1st

    2nd

     5th

    3rd

  1. Rank for Contested Possessions

     2nd

     5th

    1st

      4th

     7th

    2nd

    1st

  1. Supercoach Score

     1st

    13th

    2nd

      1st

    2nd

    2nd

    4th

  1. Rank for General Clearances

   10th

     5th

    1st

      6th

   10th

    1st

    3rd

  1. Team Position at
    End of Minor Round

    2nd

     9th

    1st

      2nd

    3rd

    4th

   13th

  1. Brownlow Medal Position Previous Year

    6th

    25th

    2nd

      6th

    3rd

    3rd

   13th

Rank for Uncontested Possessions

    27th

    83rd

   191st

     45th

   96th

   10th

  114th

Rank for

Goals

    65th

   245th

  106th

     89th

   41st

  197th

 122nd

Now to this year’s Brownlow. The table below shows our top ranked players for this year’s medal based on how they ranked on the key variables outlined above.    

                                                        Table 2 – Players’ Rankings on Key Form Variables for 2020 Year

Our Top Ranked Players -

Key Variables -

    1st Lachie 

 Neale

    2nd  Patrick  

Cripps

     3rd   
 Clayton  

 Oliver

   4th

Nic Natanui

     5th Marcus Bontem-

pelli

    6th 
 Christian Petracca

    7th

 Taylor 

 Adams

   8th

 Jack Steele

1. Rank for Centre

    Clearances

  =7th

    1st

     =7th

     4th

    2nd

     51st

      3rd

  20th

2. Rank for

    Contested

    Possessions

      4th

    7th

      2nd

    35th

    21st

      3rd

     14th

  11th

3. Supercoach  

    Score

     2nd

   68th

      4th

    21st

    10th

      9th

     25th

   3rd

4. Rank for  

    General

    Clearances

      8th

    3rd

      1st

     4th

     9th

     46th

      6th

  12th

5. Team Position

    at End of Minor

    Round

    2nd

   11th

      9th

     5th

     7th

      9th

      8th

    6th

6. Brownlow Medal Position Previous Year

   =3rd

  =3rd

     31st

No votes in
3 games

     8th

No votes from 22 games

No votes from 10 games

 1 vote from 20 games


 Market Odds

 

  $1.25

   $51

     $67

     $67

    $26

       $7

     $67

   $13

 Market Odds  

 Without Neale

  N/A

  $51

     
     $34

 

    $34

    $13

    $3.50

     $34

     $6

 Market for
Top 3 Finish

   $1.03

  $29

     $23

     $15

    $15

    $2.00

     $11

 $3.75

Market For

Top 5 Finish

   $1.01

  $17

     $11

  $6.50

      $9

     $1.33

      $5

 $1.40

Market For

Top 10 Finish

 $1.001

   $8

       $4

   $1.90

  $2.75

    $1.15

  $1.75

 $1.05

* Odds correct at time of being entered – subject to change.

Betting Strategy
Our recommended betting plays focus on two key players – Patrick Cripps and Marcus Bontempelli.
If you had say $50 to invest on the Brownlow, we would recommend staking as shown below.

We’ve steered clear of some of the other players that rank highly on the table above because they have poor records in attracting umpires’ votes in Brownlow Medal counts (e.g. Clayton Oliver’s best finish to date was 22nd place in 2018 whilst Nic Natanui’s best finish was 34th place way back in 2012).

Patrick Cripps
He is a proven vote getter having finished 3rd in the Brownlow in 2019 and 4th in 2018. Considering in 2020 he was No.1 ranked for Centre Clearances - the No1 indicator – he’s worth an investment, especially at the value odds on offer.

Top 10 Finish – Invest $25 @ $8 = $200

Marcus Bontempelli
He is also a proven vote getter, having finished in 8th place in the Brownlow in 2019, 2017 and 2016. The Bulldog dynamo had his best vote count last year (22) and has gone to even greater heights in 2020 ranking 2nd for Centre Clearances.

Top 5 Finish – Invest $25 @ $9 = $225


With a Top 5 Finish for Bontempelli and a Top 10 Finish for Cripps we'll collect on both bets.



 

                                                                                                                        Aussieraces.com September 2020