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How to Pick the Melbourne Cup Winner Year | Winner | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
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2016 | Almandin |
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| Won a listed race at Caulfield before taking out the Group 3 Bart Cummings at Flemington and then completing the hat trick with the narrowest of wins in the Melbourne Cup defeating Heartbreak City in a thriller that went right to the line. |
| Prince | Michelle | Darren Weir | $101.00 | Ran a solid second in the Moonee Valley Cup at his lead up run. The 6 year old was given a dream run from barrier 1 by Michelle Payne in the Cup. Saved ground hugging the rails until the home straight when he was eased over heels and won like a top shot not a long shot. |
| Protectionist | Ryan Moore | A. Wolher | $8.00 | This 5 yo German trained galloper ran a sound fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes before blowing his 21 rivals away and scoring by 4 lengths in the Cup at only his 10th career start. |
| Fiorente | D. Oliver | Gai Waterhouse | $7.00 | 6 yo former import which finished an unlucky third in the Cox Plate before coming with a well timed run to beat Red Cadeaux in the Cup - going one better than his second behind Green Moon the previous year. |
| Green Moon | B. Prebble | R. Hickmont | $21.00 | 6 yo former import which ran a sensational race to win the Turnbull Stakes after racing three wide for the entire way. Then struck trouble in the run before being unplaced in the Cox Plate. Won the Cup comfortably by a margin of a length at the finish. |
| Dunaden | C. Lemaire | M. Delzangles | $9.10 | This French galloper landed in Australia and ran terrific final sectionals to win the Geelong Cup prior to beating Red Cadeaux by a nose in the Cup. |
2010 | Americain | G. Mosse | A. De Royer-Dupre | $13.00 | French trained galloper which had won four races in a row including the Geelong Cup prior to the Melbourne Cup. Finished with a rush to take out the race easily by a margin of 2.75 lengths. |
2009 | Shocking | Corey Brown | M. Kavanagh | $10.00 | Was in red hot form winning the Lexus Stakes at Flemington easily 3 days before the Cup. Again showed his liking for the Flemington course by winning the Cup comfortably. |
2008 | Viewed | Blake Shinn | B. Cummings | $41.00 | Had interrupted runs and had finished well back in the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon but had a sweet run in the big race and that made all the difference at the finish. |
2007 | Efficient | Michael Rodd | G. Rogerson | $24.00 | Wore blinkers for the first time and ran an improved race in his lead up run in the Cox Plate. Was put over jumps to sharpen him up and worked brilliantly prior to the Cup indicating he would run well. |
2006 | Delta Blues | Yasunari | K. Sumii | $22.00 | Japanese raider which raced 3 wide all the way in the Caulfield Cup and put in a massive run to claim 3rd place in the race. He ran right up to that big effort to take out the Cup. |
The past history of the Melbourne Cup provides us with a good guide to picking the winner -
Lead Up Races–The Caulfield Cup has been a good guide to selecting the Cup winner. 10 of the past 25 Cup winners came through the race. 9 of those 10 winners had finished in the first six in the Caulfield Cup. However, the race has been less of a guide of late with only 2 of the past 12 Cup winners coming through the race. The Turnbull Stakes is also a good guide as 7 of the past 17 Cup winners ran in that event.Other races that have provided a sound guide are the French race the Prix Kergolay (3 of the past 10 Cup winners), the Geelong Cup (3 of the past 18 Cup winners) and the Cox Plate (4 of the past 15 Cup winners).
Form– In form horses often win the Cup.12 of the past 25 Melbourne Cup winners also won at their lead up run and 6 were placed.
Overseas Raiders – Between 1993 and 2019 nearly 180 overseas entrants have raced in the Melbourne Cup and eight have won the race – Vintage Crop in 1993, Media Puzzle in 2003, Delta Blues in 2006, Americain in 2010, Dunaden in 2011, Protectionist in 2014, Rekindling in 2017 and Cross Counter in 2018. Five of those raced in Australia prior to the Cup. It can pay to be a bit wary of overseas entrants having their first run in Australia in the Cup as they are often unfamiliar with and can be brought undone by the noise of the crowd, the hustle and bustle of racing in a 24 horse field, the firmness of the track and the solid tempo of the event. The 2012 winner Green Moon could technically be added to the list of winners from overseas as he was imported from the UK. However, he was having his third Australian preparation when he took out the Cup. Similarly, the 2013 winner Fiorente was an imported galloper but he was also well acclimatised when he won the race as it was his second preparation in Oz. Almandin was also an imported galloper having previously raced in Germany and France.
Weight
Horses down in the weights often perform well as their light loads are a distinct advantage over the final stages of the grueling 3200 metre journey. 12 of the past 13 Cup winners carried 55 kgs or less on their backs. In 2018 Cross Counter won with the bottom weight of 51 kgs and in 2019 Vow And Declare also won with the minimum weight of 52 kgs.
The Distance – The ability to run out the 3200 metre journey strongly is what often separates the winner and losers at the finish of the Cup. A horse should be proven over the 3200 metre trip, bred to run the distance or at least indicate in its form over shorter distances (by running on at the end of those races) that it will run out the journey strongly.
Running Position- Horses which race in the leading division in the Cup usually 'run out of steam' by the end of the tough 3200m staying test as making the pace takes its toll. Also, gallopers which settle rearwards tend to get too far out of their ground in the strung out field and can't make up the leeway at the finish. The horses to follow are those which settle around the middle of the field as they can get cosy runs behind the pacemakers, race within reach of those leaders, and have plenty of petrol left to launch in the run home. This is an important form factor to consider when assessing the winning prospects of Cup contenders. A key question to pose about each runner is - "Where is it likely to settle in the run?".
Recent Melbourne Cup winners and the positions that they settled in the run were -
2019 Vow And Declare - Settled 4th of 24 in the run.
2018 Cross Counter - Settled 22nd of 24.
2017 Rekindling - Settled 9th of 23.
2016 Almandin - Settled 16th of 24.
2015 Prince Of Penzance - Settled 10th of 24.
2014 Protectionist - Settled 17th of 22.
2013 Fiorente - Settled 15th of 24.
2012 Green Moon - Settled 7th of 24.
2011 Dunaden - Settled 15th of 23.
2010 Americain - Settled 12th of 23.
2009 Shocking - Settled 10th of 23.
2008 Viewed - Settled 9th of 22.
2007 Efficient - Settled 12th of 21.
All Melbourne Cup winners from 2007 to 2017 therefore settled in running positions 7th to 17th. No leaders, horses settling close up on the speed in positions 2nd to 6th, or any back markers settling in positions 18th to 24th were successful during this period. Kiwi famously won the Cup in 1983 coming from last in the run, but such a dramatic last to first victory is unlikely these days - especially since the introduction of the new whip rules that have changed Australian racing. However, Cross Counter defied the trend by coming from well back in the field to win in 2018.
Barriers
There is a very long run to the first turn and outside barriers are generally no disadvantage. In fact, 8 of the past 40 winners of the race started from barriers 20-22. Vow And Declare jumped from gate 21 last year.
Age
The peak ages for a horse to win the Cup are 4 years old to 6 years old. 13 of the past 14 winners were in this age group. Only one 8 year old has ever won the race and no horses 9 years or older have ever been successful.
Trainers – Some trainers have a proven track record in the Melbourne Cup. Trainers with the best winning records in the race in recent times are Bart Cummings (12 Cup wins), Lee Freedman (5 wins) and Irish trainer Dermot Weld (2 wins).
Jockeys – There are jockeys who handle the pressure of riding in a race like the Melbourne Cup better than others and they are known as the ‘Big Race Riders’. Some hoops are also great ‘Distance Riders’ in that they excel in races run over longer trips like the Melbourne Cup. Glen Boss, Damien Oliver and Kerrin McEvoy have the most successful records in the Cup in recent times with three wins apiece.
The 2020 Melbourne Cup
Based on all of the above information about past Melbourne Cup winners, we suggested to our followers that Vow And Declare was the horse to back in last year's race and he duly saluted at double figure odds. This year history points to two horses playing prominent roles in the Cup - No18 Ashrun @ $21 and No 7 Verry Elleegant @ $11.Back them both and should either of them salute you'll have a big winning day.
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