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Cup2How to Pick the Melbourne Cup Winner    

It’s a great feeling backing the Melbourne Cup winner - and we can show you how you can do it! Below is a list of recent Melbourne Cup winners and how they won the big race. We explain how to pick the Cup winner using the history of the race as a guide. As the old adage goes 'History repeats'.

Recent Melbourne Cup Winners and How They Won It -

Year

2017

Winner

Redkindling


Jockey

Corey Brown

 

Trainer

Joseph O’Brien

Odds

$15.00


Lead Up Form
Still only a 3yo in northern hemisphere terms, Rekindling was coming off a career best fourth in the Group 1 St Leger Stakes in the UK and was having his first start in Australia. He finished gamely to get the upper hand over the final stages of the race.

2016

Almandin


Kerrin
McEvoy


Robert Hickmott


$11.00

Won a listed race at Caulfield before taking out the Group 3 Bart Cummings at Flemington and then completing the hat trick with the narrowest of wins in the Melbourne Cup defeating HeartbreakCity in a thriller that went right to the line.


2015

 

Prince
Of Penzance

Michelle
Payne

Darren Weir

$101.00

Ran a solid second in the Moonee Valley Cup at his lead up run. The 6 year old was given a dream run from barrier 1 by Michelle Payne in the Cup. Saved ground hugging the rails until the home straight when he was eased over heels and won like a top shot not a long shot.



2014

 

Protectionist

Ryan Moore

A. Wolher

$8.00

This 5 yo German trained galloper ran a sound fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes before blowing his 21 rivals away and scoring by 4 lengths in the Cup at only his 10th career start.



2013

 

Fiorente

D. Oliver

Gai Waterhouse

$7.00

6 yo former import which finished an unlucky third in the Cox Plate before coming with a well timed run to beat Red Cadeaux in the Cup - going one better than his second behind Green Moon the previous year.



2012

 

Green Moon

B. Prebble

R. Hickmont

$21.00

6 yo former import which ran a sensational race to win the Turnbull Stakes after racing three wide for the entire way. Then struck trouble in the run before being unplaced in the Cox Plate. Won the Cup comfortably by a margin of a length at the finish.



2011

 

Dunaden

C. Lemaire

M. Delzangles

$9.10

This French galloper landed in Australia and ran terrific final sectionals to win the Geelong Cup prior to beating Red Cadeaux by a nose in the Cup.

2010

Americain

G. Mosse

A. De Royer-Dupre

$13.00

French trained galloper which had won four races in a row including the Geelong Cup prior to the Melbourne Cup. Finished with a rush to take out the race easily by a margin of 2.75 lengths.

2009

Shocking

Corey Brown

M. Kavanagh

$10.00

Was in red hot form winning the Lexus Stakes at Flemington easily 3 days before the Cup. Again showed his liking for the Flemington course by winning the Cup comfortably.

2008

Viewed

Blake Shinn

B. Cummings

$41.00

Had interrupted runs and had finished well back in the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon but had a sweet run in the big race and that made all the difference at the finish.

2007

Efficient

Michael Rodd

G. Rogerson

$24.00

Wore blinkers for the first time and ran an improved race in his lead up run in the Cox Plate. Was put over jumps to sharpen him up and worked brilliantly prior to the Cup indicating he would run well.

2006

Delta Blues

Yasunari
Iwata

K. Sumii

$22.00

Japanese raider which raced 3 wide all the way in the Caulfield Cup and put in a massive run to claim 3rd place in the race. He ran right up to that big effort to take out the Cup.

How to Pick the Melbourne Cup Winner

The past history of the Melbourne Cup provides us with a good guide to picking the winner -

Lead Up RacesThe Caulfield Cup has been a good guide to selecting the Cup winner. 9 of the past 23 Cup winners came through the race. 8 of those 9 winners had finished in the first six in the Caulfield Cup. However, the race has been less of a guide of late with only 1 of the past 10 Cup winners coming through the race. The Turnbull Stakes is also a good guide as 6 of the past 15 Cup winners ran in that event.Other races that have provided a sound guide are the French race the Prix Kergolay (3 of the past 8 Cup winners), the Geelong Cup (3 of the past 16 Cup winners) and the Cox Plate (4 of the past 13 Cup winners).

FormIn form horses  often win the Cup.12 of the past 23 Melbourne Cup winners also won at their lead up run  and 4 were placed.

runhorseOverseas Raiders – Well over 100 overseas entrants have raced in the Melbourne Cup and seven have won the race – Vintage Crop in 1993, Media Puzzle in 2003, Delta Blues in 2006, Americain in 2010, Dunaden in 2011, Protectionist in 2014 and Rekindling in 2017. Five of those raced in Australia prior to the Cup. It can pay to be wary of overseas entrants having their first run in Australia in the Cup as they are often unfamiliar with and can be brought undone by the noise of the crowd, the hustle and bustle of racing in a 24 horse field, the firmness of the track and the solid tempo of the event. The 2012 winner Green Moon could technically be added to the list of winners from overseas as he was imported from the UK. However, he was having his third Australian preparation when he took out the Cup. Similarly, the 2013 winner Fiorente was an imported galloper but he was also well acclimatised when he won the race as it was his second preparation in Oz. Almandin was also an imported galloper having previously raced in Germany and France.

Weight
During the past 21 years only one horse has carried over 56 1/2 kgs to victory. Horses down in the weights often perform well as their light loads are a distinct advantage over the final stages of the grueling 3200 metre journey. 10 of the past 11 Cup winners carried 55 kgs or less on their backs. In 2017 Rekindling won with 51.5 kgs.


The Distance – The ability to run out the 3200 metre journey strongly is what often separates the winner and losers at the finish of the Cup. A horse should be proven over the 3200 metre trip, bred to run the distance or at least indicate in its form over shorter distances (by running on at the end of those races) that it will run out the journey strongly.


Running Position- Horses which race in the leading division in the Cup usually 'run out of steam' by the end of the tough 3200m staying test as making the pace takes its toll. Also, gallopers which settle rearwards tend to get too far out of their ground in the strung out field and can't make up the leeway at the finish. The horses to follow are those which settle around the middle of the field as they can get cosy runs behind the pacemakers, race within reach of those leaders, and have plenty of petrol left to launch in the run home. We believe that this is the most important form factor of all to consider when assessing the winning prospects of Cup contenders. The key question to pose about each runner is - "Where is it likely to settle in the run?".

Recent Melbourne Cup winners and the positions that they settled in the run were -
2017 Rekindling - Settled 9th of 23 in the run.
2016 Almandin - Settled 16th of 24.
2015 Prince Of Penzance - Settled 10th of 24.
2014 Protectionist - Settled 17th of 22.
2013 Fiorente - Settled 15th of 24.
2012 Green Moon - Settled 7th of 24.
2011 Dunaden - Settled 15th of 23.
2010 Americain - Settled 12th of 23.
2009 Shocking - Settled 10th of 23.
2008 Viewed - Settled 9th of 22.
2007 Efficient - Settled 12th of 21.

The past eleven Melbourne Cup winners therefore all settled in running positions 7th to 17th. No leaders, horses settling close up on the speed in positions 2nd to 6th, or any back markers settling in positions 18th to 24th were successful during this period. Kiwi famously won the Cup in 1983 coming from last in the run, but such a dramatic last to first victory is unlikely these days - especially since the introduction of
the new whip rules that have changed Australian racing.

Barriers
There is a very long run to the first turn and outside barriers are generally no disadvantage. In fact, 7 of the past 38 winners of the race started from barriers 20-22.

Age
During the past three decades all the Melbourne Cups have been won by 4, 5, 6 & 7 year olds. Only one 8 year old has ever won the race and no horses 9 years or older have ever been successful. Remember, a European or northern hemisphere horse listed as an 8 year old is actually a 7 year old in Australian terms.


Trainers – Some trainers have a proven track record in the Melbourne Cup. Trainers with the best winning records in the race in recent times are Bart Cummings (12 Cup wins), Lee Freedman (5 wins) and Irish trainer Dermot Weld (2 wins).

Jockeys – There are jockeys who handle the pressure of riding in a race like the Melbourne Cup better than others and they are known as the ‘Big Race Riders’. Some hoops are also great ‘Distance Riders’ in that they excel in races run over longer trips like the Melbourne Cup. Glen Boss and Damien Oliver have the most successful records in the Cup in recent times with three wins apiece.

After assessing all the runners in this year's Melbourne Cup on the above criteria, the past results of the race suggest that the top chances in this year's Cup and their current market odds are -

1st  No.17
A Prince Of Arran $17.00
2nd No.13
Finche $27.00
3rd No.16
Ventura Storm $26.00
4th No.22
Youngstar$22.00


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