Using Aussieraces.com Information-Aussieraces.com
Using Aussieraces.com Information
Here's a handy new feature for you - the Aussieraces.com 'Rated Price and Equivalent Percentage Chance of Winning Chart' (see below). At a glance you can now see that whatever price we Rate a horse at - you'll know its actual equivalent percentage chance of winning. For example, at Flemington in August we Rated the value bet Electric Fusionas a $15.00chance - referring to the chart you can see that according to us he therefore had a 7% chance of winning. Electric Fusionduly ran a great second at the bolters odds of $51.00. One benefit of the chart is that it gives you a much clearer picture of how likely a horse is to win than does just looking at its Rated price on its own. Another advantage is that it comes in handy if you are using the Kelly Criterion 'Bet Calculator' (see below) as to use the Bet Calculator you need to know the percentage figure.
(1) Races Covered- We cover most races at a meeting for you with the exception of Maidens, 'high risk' races where there are either horses debuting (i.e. runners of unknown ability) or a lot of runners resuming from spells (i.e. which have uncertain levels of fitness) and races where there is no value on offer.
(2) Forecast Finish- The illustrated finish shows the top four rated runners and the forecast margins.
(3) Aussieraces.com Rating - These Ratings are calculated using mathematical modelling and detailed form analysis. They represent an accurate assessment of each horse's true winning chances.
(4) Market Odds - The market odds as at on race day. These give you a guide to the market odds that you may get. Value odds are shown in green.
(5) Latest Live Odds- Our Live Odds link allows you to quickly check market movements and the latest odds at any moment with your bookmaker or the TAB.
It's worth checking the Latest Live Odds as often as you can as markets are very fluid these days with horses drifting out and shortening dramatically without notice. A horse that doesn't represent value in early markets can suddenly offer value if its price drifts out significantly beyond our Rated Odds. Conversely, a horse that represents value in early markets can be supported to the extent that it's market odds become less than our Rated Odds and it no longer represents value.
(6) Recommended Betting Methods - You can utilize Aussieraces.com Ratings in any number of ways. You can back our Top Rated runners, invest on our best Value bets or combine our selections in Quinellas, Trifectas, First Fours and Quaddies.
(7) Advanced Investing - The Kelly Criterion is a formula that is widely used in the finance industry and by professional punters as it has a mathematical edge over other forms of bankroll management. It allows you to (1) calculate the right amount to bet, (2) to take optimum advantage of value overlays, and (3) to maximise the long term growth of your bank. The Kelly Criterion assumes that you add your profits to your bank and that you always know the amount of your bankroll. The Kelly Formula should be used when you have an edge, or in other words the market odds offer value and are in your favour. This is where Aussieraces.com Ratings come in, as we give you the Rated Odds that you can compare to the available Market Odds to assess your advantage.
Here's an article that explains the Kelly Criterion in more detail. Whilst the actual Kelly Formula is quite complex, this easy to use Bet Calculator simplifies it. We suggest playing around with the Bet Calculator to get a feel for how it works. Below is a 'Rated Price and Equivalent Percentage Chance of Winning Chart' which will come in handy if you are using the Bet Calculator. As suggested in the article, wagering a fraction of the Kelly amount rather than the full Kelly is a good idea - say a 1/4 or even 1/10th. Bill Benter, a maths wiz and probably the most successful racehorse punter of all time, uses a fractional Kelly approach to calculate his bets. As always, only invest amounts that you are comfortable with.
Aussieraces.com - Rated Price and Equivalent Percentage Chance of Winning Chart