Where The Winners Come From-Aussieraces.com
We studied the winners of 1072 races from the 2013/14 racing season to see where they had finished at their previous starts. We found that a horse's finishing position at its previous start can tell you a lot about its winning chances.
In doing our research, our first task was to filter out races won by horses at their debut - as obviously they hadn’t had a previous start. That done, here’s what we discovered -
Table : Race Winners : Finishing Position at Previous Start
Finish Position Previous St.
5th and beyond
During the 2013/14 racing season the top trainer in Victoria was Darren Weir and the most successful in NSW was Chris Waller. An amazing 73% of all Darren Weir’s winners had finished in the first four at their previous runs – reflecting the fact that overall his horses perform with an extremely high level of consistency. In New South Wales where Chris Waller reigned it was a similar story - 68% of his winners had finished in the first four at their previous starts.
The figures are quite telling. The first stat that jumps out at you is how many winners also won at their previous runs - 20%. However, the figure that really hits the message home that most races are won by horses which are in good form is that 63% or nearly 2 in every 3 races were won by horses which had finished in the first four at their previous starts.
The average field size is 10 runners. Therefore on average 40% of horses should have finished in the first four at their previous runs. However, these 40% make up 63% of all coming winners. On the flip side around 60% of horses finish in 5th place or beyond in their races and these gallopers account for just 37% of coming winners.