Where The Winners Come From

We studied the winners of 1072 races from the 2013/14 racing season to see where they had finished at their previous starts. We found that a horse's finishing position at its previous start can tell you a lot about its winning chances.

In doing our research, our first task was to filter out races won by horses at their debut - as obviously they hadn’t had a previous start. That done, here’s what we discovered -

      Table : Race Winners : Finishing Position at Previous Start

Finish Position Previous St.	Number	%
Won	212	20%
2nd	196	18%
3rd	139	13%
4th	125	12%
Sub Total	672	63%
5th and beyond	400	37%
Totals	1072	100%

The figures are quite telling. The first stat that jumps out at you is how many winners also won at their previous runs - 20%. However, the figure that really hits the message home that most races are won by horses which are in good form is that 63% or nearly 2 in every 3 races were won by horses which had finished in the first four at their previous starts.

The average field size is 10 runners. Therefore on average 40% of horses should have finished in the first four at their previous runs. However, these 40% make up 63% of all coming winners. On the flip side around 60% of horses finish in 5th place or beyond in their races and these gallopers account for just 37% of coming winners.

During the 2013/14 racing season the top trainer in Victoria was Darren Weir and the most successful in NSW was Chris Waller. An amazing 73% of all Darren Weir’s winners had finished in the first four at their previous runs – reflecting the fact that overall his horses perform with an extremely high level of consistency. In New South Wales where Chris Waller reigned it was a similar story - 68% of his winners had finished in the first four at their previous starts.

In form horses are obviously the ones to follow - especially those which finished in the first four at their previous runs as they supply 63% of all winners. At the other end of the scale, horses with a ‘duck egg’ next to their name from their last start accounted for just 7% of winners.



                                    Aussieraces.com  September 2014